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I doubt gray market sites have any kind of longterm value or predictable revenues. Who knows what kind of site it was, but to be valued so lowly the regulatory risk might be very high.
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There are tons of those offers. Carefull that 9k revenue doesn't come from $9000 of ads.
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Yeah, but you have to scale the projections for uncertainty about the future, and exaggeration by the seller.

In particular, if someone on the internet tells me they’re making $x a month from spammy ads on a squatted domain, I immediately discount the claim substantially due to bullshit. I increase the discount rate if the person making the claim is trying to sell me said domain.

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True, but if the guy contacting you is the actual owner of the website you use to buy domains, his credibility increases enormously. He said this person was a customer on his platform. When that guy says "I have a website which is making 10k/year," and I already trust the domain platform he created because I use it as a customer, I believe him.
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> I believe him.

Enough to be motivated to proceed with due diligence.

Whatever any potential buyer considers that to mean for them.

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You really think the owner of the marketplace doesn’t have an incentive to convince you to make a sizable transaction?
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Projected revenues for this domain is at $100k this year!

How much are you trying to sell the domain for?

Uhh...about $100k.

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