Right but if you dont say how long it will take them, youre not really saying anything.
replyThere is no doubt that less than 10 years will be needed for China to be able to do something equivalent to what the ASML machines can do now.
replyWhat is far less certain is what ASML will be able to do at that time, i.e. if they will be able to progress significantly over the state-of-the-art of today, or they will reach a plateau.
Besides China, there is a renewed effort in Japan to become competitive again, so ASML may face in the future both Chinese and Japanese competitors.
> measured in a small number of decades at most
replyBy "a small number of decades" do you mean from now, or starting from 15 years ago when the ASML Twinscan NXE:3100 made it debut?
replyI mean you’ve definitely just had technology disappear though, usually because of war. Damascus Steel was a lost military tech. We could certainly end up just accidentally (or worse, intentionally) bomb this stuff out of existence so nobody has it.
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