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ZERO. ZERO developers who don’t comply will make a living selling applications and services to the general public.
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I agree; I expect that's already true?

In the GP I'm talking about people releasing FOSS and similar projects.

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This is correct. The people who will refuse to pay $25 and sign their stuff are people with a political objective, not businesses.
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It's not about paying Google. People can buy gift cards with cash and do that; that's not the problem, especially not for commercial use. It's everything else that they're imposing or could impose on a whim and whose device it is they're putting restrictions on.
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Google will not accept prepaid cards for verification.

Google's identity requirements serve basic security needs and are fine.

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