The increase in production capacity is irrelevant if you don't have a way to export the said production.
My question was specifically about the increase in the pipeline's capacity. Because your statement "As pointed out above Hormuz is being bypassed with ADCOP's capacity being ramped up." does not make sense otherwise.
Chatgpt tell me this this: Short term: increase ADCOP from ~1.5 → ~1.8–2.0 mb/d (confirmed and achievable) Medium term: expand storage and export infrastructure at Fujairah Long term: build additional pipelines/corridors alongside ADCOP
Short term is too small. Medium term does not help with the throughput, just better buffering. And the long term is, well, long term (= many, many years).
Why could something that might happen many years in the future force the Iran to open Hormuz now?
The thing is, 5-10 years from now the importance of oil will be greatly diminished, as this oil shock will result in much greater push for decarbonisation than all climate summits combined (and the technology -- mostly solar and long distance DC lines - is essentially ready, at a reasonable cost). The gulf states see this, so I am not 100% sure all those pushes for extra pipelines will come to fruition, once the Iran war cools down.
You simply are not understanding my comments nor reading the provided informative links.
There are three things to consider viz. 1) Production Capacity i.e. new wells/sources 2) Pipeline Capacity i.e. pipeline bandwidth and no. of pipelines 3) Storage Capacity i.e both at terminal/port and distributed worldwide.
The Iran/Strait of Hormuz problem was foreseen long ago and the UAE specifically has been working on all three of the above. ADCOP construction was started March 2008, completed March 2011 and operational in June 2012. That gives you an idea of how fast things moved.
The last link about infra above lists some possible ways to increase pipeline capacity which in the case of UAE is actually Short/Medium term (easily within 5 years) viz;
... as well as enhancements or parallel lines to the UAE’s ADCOP pipeline to Fujairah,” said Kpler oil analyst Grabenwöger ... In terms of timing, the UAE probably has the most flexibility to move relatively quickly on incremental projects ...
There is also talk of extending ADCOP to the nearby Omani port of Duqm.
Conlusion:
“Five years from now, the Persian Gulf will have far better bypass options than it does today. No matter what the US and Iran agree over the future of Hormuz, the strait’s status will change. But the waterway will never be as critical to the global economy as it was when the fighting started six weeks ago,” Blas wrote.
> The thing is, 5-10 years from now the importance of oil will be greatly diminished
This line tells me you have no idea of the Petroleum industry and its importance to the modern world. Our dependence on Oil will not go away in the next 50 years nor even 100 years. As an example, look up "Naptha shortage" to understand how vital the byproducts of crude oil refining/distillation are to our modern industries. There are over 6000 petrochemicals ! (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrochemical) Renewables only help with alternative energy sources, and given the way we have built our modern industries around petroleum they cannot meet all our needs. They can bring down our reliance on Oil but it is very longterm.