The American firms are not demonstrating escape velocity and as long as china offers something somewhat comparable and offers it at a very low price to compensate for any difference in quality, they will not be generating enough in cash flows to finance reinvestment. I highly doubt they’ll be able to continue raising external financing for numerous periods from here on out - they gotta start showing strong financials and that they are running away from the open source models.
Already DeepSeek v4 is being hosted on Huawei Ascend 950. What do you think those cost relative to NVIDIA gear?
Not only that but other countries are very unlikely to follow suit, so it is just a straight-up productivity tax on the US.
that surprised me too. The intelligence is at the client, and by making that open, anthropic has commoditized the coding agent.