I agree the foundations: git, GitHub, compilers, etc. are arguably are “a fraction of the price” and today they have arguably more impact (though not sure by which measure). But literally since January we have been rolling out our replacements, I don’t really see how that wouldn’t be an earth shattering impact. You talk about GitHub and that’s fine but ignore the fact that huge swaths of the profession aren’t even directly using any of these tools anymore.
I’m not sure what you imagine the promise of AI to be, and without that I can’t really be specific in any refutation I would just say coding is only the beginning. It is the most powerful and also the easiest thing to solve first. Improved coding performance also improves generalization and performance on non-coding tasks, so that’s a nice bonus, and we’re maybe 5 years away from decent embodied systems which after an inflection point of consumer adoption will quickly get better via data flywheels and on policy learning. Basically there are very few bottlenecks that will not be touched.