One thing that is potentially different this time is that Moore's Law has stopped scaling. Computers aren't getting smaller exponentially. They're getting bigger with multiple chips glued together to make up for Moore's Law.
reply...But there's a new world dawning for photonic chips.
replyNo reason to expect Moore's observation to apply there (though, maybe?), but it will have big implications for power usage.
Photonic chips allow computers to get bigger, not smaller.
reply> Today's B200 clusters are tomorrow's e-waste.
replyHardware depreciation timescales are actually getting longer, not shorter, because frontier hardware like B200 clusters is highly bottlenecked. It's not just a RAMpocalypse out there, we're seeing early signs of production bottlenecks with GPUs and maybe even CPUs.