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"There is an international arms race with China"

I keep seeing this. Where did it come from? Has China said that they intend to attack other countries using AI? Have other countries declared that they intend to attack China with AI?

Also, why does anyone believe that AI could actually be that dangerous, given it's inherent unpredictable and unreliable performance? I would be terrified to rely on AI in a life or death situation.

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AI in war is like Palintirs whole business model. You have a system that can effectively deal with ambiguity and has superhuman performance on reasoning plus superhuman physical abilities via embodiment…

Inherent unpredictable and unreliable performance is also quite the feature of human beings as well.

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It was a metaphor. I meant, and later clarified, an intellectual arms race.

BTW your handle is an actual Czech word, minus a diacritic sign ("křupan"), and a bit amusing one. It basically means hillbilly. Not that it matters, just FYI.

Anyway: AI will be used in military context, and it probably already is. Both for target acquisition and maybe even driving the weapon itself. As of now, the Ukrainians are almost certainly operating some AI-enabled killer drones.

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That's funny, I was told my real last name is a swear word in Czech
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It's not a law per se, but there are rules for reasoning under uncertainty to get the most out of what limited knowledge you have, and Lindy's law arises from that. To do better than Lindy's law requires having additional information about the problem beyond just the one data point.
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