Sounds like the burden is on you to explain either
reply 1. If you're not treating my claim as a black box, explain explicitly what is your model of what the article was about? Are you aware, for example of the last paragraph of the article? I think that WAS what the article was about. Do you have specific opinions on e.g. how I went wrong and where my model differs?
2. If you are treating it as a black box, what's your default expectation based on the law of Nothing Ever Happens?
The point of the article is that people are historically bad at predicting when exponential curves plateau, even if they're correct that there will be a plateau.
replyThis does *not* imply the inevitability of AGI. It does not imply AGI is necessarily bad.
It does mean that "the capabilities of AI will eventually plateau" offers no meaningful predictive power or relevance to the overall AI discussion.