… an assumption that something happened is not a definitive statement that it did happen, only that we're assuming it did, because it could happen, or perhaps here, that because the major was bumped, that it is legal, according to the contract given, for it to have possibly happened in a way that we depended on. They're not saying that it will/must; "assume a major version is incompatible" is not at odds with what you've written.
Semver says “major version MUST be incremented if any backward incompatible changes are introduced to the public API.” You’re correct that it doesn’t say “major version MUST NOT be incremented if there are no backward incompatible changes”, so technically that is possible — but it would be a very odd thing to do.