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Personally, when I have not slept well and need to be productive in a day, I’m much more likely to want to load up on sugar and unhealthy food

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I’m the same way. Getting good sleep is my best predictor of whether I’ll blow a weight loss attempt or skip exercise.
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Almost certainly plays a role. Also increased activity levels due to better less fatigue.

Certainly is not defeating thermodynamics, assuming calorie absorption is not disrupted somehow it's likely the above.

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