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> I'm tempted to assume that inference costs are closer to subscription pricing than to API pricing

So just going on vibes?

While some people don't like his content, Ed Zitron shows a lot of evidence for your assumption being very wrong.

These companies are bleeding cash at ungodly rates. It's likely their API pricing is still subsidized if you look at their overall financial picture.

Related, there's a good reason those API prices keep going up a lot every new version and it's not just because the models are better.

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Selling inference for more than inference costs is not incompatible with bleeding cash at ungodly rates. They do in fact pay ungodly amounts of cash for other things, like training, marketing, etc. Heck, you can bleed cash while being profitable (in the accounting sense)

Also, API prices going up a lot every new version is more an OpenAI thing, and even there it's a recent trend: GPT 5.0 was a big price drop compared to 4.1, and 4.1 was cheaper than 4o, which itself got a price cut at some point and is cheaper than 4. Meanwhile Anthropic's API pricing stayed stable for many versions, then got slashed to a third with the 4.2 release and have stayed at that level since.

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Considering not one company is in the black yet I don’t really know how we can say anyone is making bank, unless we want to count absurd levels of VC funding (now slowing down) I guess.
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I am conveniently not counting training costs (since they add no marginal costs, selling more tokens doesn't impact them), and hardware and DC costs only amortized

Of course they do have to "make bank" in some way to offset the insane training costs. But whether they go for high prices or high volume, or offer some services as a loss leader to drive profits elsewhere is somewhat orthogonal to that

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Does Anthropic really expect to double their income without also doubling their expenses?
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Let’s see it first. And without omitting training/infrastructure costs at that. Until then my comment is still accurate.
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its a private company, what exactly do you expect to 'see'?
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Anthropic IPO's in less than 5 months and I guarantee you any company that officially is in the black will proudly shout it from the rooftops.
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> Anthropic IPO's in less than 5 months

pure speculation. about as valuable as my linked wsj reporting i suppose. given thats the case, maybe you shouldnt claim so confidently that they are money incinerators.

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