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> What's your source for Opus being a 5T model?

Elon Musk tweeted that Grok is 0.5T or 1/10th the size of Opus. https://xcancel.com/elonmusk/status/2042123561666855235#m

While this source's reliability is certainly debatable, the size matches the results of this paper, in which researchers estimated the parameter count from model knowledge. https://01.me/research/ikp/

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> While this source's reliability is certainly debatable

Massive understatement. Nowadays it has become hard to find a single Musk statement that doesn't contain at least one lie.

> the size matches the results of this paper, in which researchers estimated the parameter count from model knowledge. https://01.me/research/ikp/

Thanks for the pointer. This estimation has Grok 6 times bigger than Musk claims it is, so maybe that's where the lie is.

(I'm quite skeptical about that number though, it would be quite disappointing for the US tech if their flagship models had to be that much larger than the Chinese ones for such a small edge in performance. Because I don't think US labs are incompetent, I'd bet that US flagships aren't more than 2/3 times bigger than Chinese flagship. Otherwise it really doesn't bode well.)

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In tiny gray text right above the table is written "90% PI ≈ ±3.00× either side." Is GPT-5.5-Pro 3.4T or 30.8T in size, or somewhere in between? We just don't know.
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> What's your source for Opus being a 5T model?

Probably Elon Musk: https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3760679047267075

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Sigh, it's year 2026 and there are still people believing something Musk says…
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People can simultaeneously be reprehensible idiots while being a reliable expert on something they have personally invested billions of dollars into and operate at scale.
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> ...while being a reliable expert on something they have personally invested billions of dollars into and operate at scale.

Like "Full Self-Driving" from coast-to-coast by 2016?

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He's also invested billions of dollars in SpaceX and Tesla... which he regularly makes wild claims about that are untrue.
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I'm not saying he actually is an expert, but he could be an expert and still lie for any number of reasons.
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Elon is a specialist of lying about stuff he invested billions in to make it look more valuable than it is (he's been doing that for Tesla for years). It's not a lack of expertise, it's the lack of any sense of integrity (and self respect).

He's lagging the AI race despite having tons of compute available, so he tries to make a narrative about how it's not that the model is behind, it's just smaller than the competition.

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