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I agree with you that they are headed in that direction! The GPU shortage is (I think) similar to the pandemic era hiring binge. It's less about the extra compute and more about denying the GPUs to potential competitors. They're racing against time to find something that gives them real moat (gen ai I guess?) and they are trading money for time.

This is also why the money being poured into datacenters isn't going to result in as much development as you think. It's about leveraging other people's money to lockdown more future hardware. This is going to end exactly like fiber build out in the 2000s. Eventually that fiber got used but the folks who originally paid for it got hosed.

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And free model supply will stop…
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I wonder if Google will put out a free model with the ads already baked in.
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If you mean releasing model weights: They won't, because they know the "shill something" vector will get abliterated immediately. And they can't use trade secrets or copyright to stop it, either, because they released the model themselves and you don't need to redistribute weights, just an adblocker LoRA.
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