Are we in a race to see who can pop the bubble first?
replyThey all know it’s coming, if it pops before they ipo then they don’t get their billion dollar payday, they have every incentive to move quickly.
replyFYI they have about a 365 day lockup after IPO before the execs can sell.
replyS-1 isn’t public yet. Source on the lockup period? SpaceX for example filed with accelerated release of insider/investor shares so I don’t think we can know if this is the case until the filing documents become public.
replyI'm sure they can get private loads or similiar way to "hedge" those? also dark markets and other tricks exist. Fin. eng. level goes way higher for them, just contact inv. banker or their lower class friends. They will find a way.
replyIt cant be that simple, I am sure that they will find some way to make money before that
replyAs you likely know, rules have recently been changed that basically force many 401k funds to invest in these IPOs while simultaneously having a relatively small number of the initial IPO to be sold to the public forcing the funds to by at inflated prices.
replyThe bubble won't pop until these retirement accounts of have been raided.
What are the 401k rule changes? I am aware that indexes changed their rules
replyI'm pretty sure that's the change GP is referring to. But pension funds can choose to specifically exclude such companies. The Danish pension fund has already excluded SpaceX, which owns xAI. (This also probably relates to American threats of annexation of Danish territories, not just AI stuff.)
replyAnd as suspected, the Anthropic deal is not recurring revenue, its just a think they can cancel anytime with 90 days notice...Release the bad news slowly and when people are looking somewhere else...
replySpaceX AI segment lost about $2.5B from operations in Q1 2026 on $818M revenue...they are burning dollars. Musk controls about 85% of voting power through supervoting shares, and cannot be fired...go IPO buyers...nothing like economic exposure without control....
What changed?
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