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I used my work email for everything for 14 years, now I'm retired/fired/laid off and I can't access it anymore and I forgot to change the email linked in my Facebook account.
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I would expect your IP to not change as drastically as some VPN IP being your only evidence that you're you.
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Unless you changed both job and country.
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That doesn't sound that unlikely to me personally, not everybody has the best tech habits and some life events can result in losing access to both very quickly. It doesn't have to happen often for it to still be a common event in support cases.
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