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Well, they changed that rule as well. If the float is less than a set percentage, then it is weighted as a much higher percentage. Something like the minimum for weighting is 12% where SpaceX's float will be below 5% (those are the numbers I recall, but I don't have a lot of confidence in them.) That means they will be weighted as if the float was 12%.

by JumpCrisscross11 hours ago|

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> they changed that rule as well

S&P hasn’t changed any rules yet.

by thg8 hours ago|

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NASDAQ has, however. SpaceX will be weighted at triple its public float.

by gruez2 hours ago|

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How many funds track NASDAQ vs S&P 500? Feels like the former is way more niche/sector specific than the latter.

by 11 hours ago|

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deleted

by rlt13 hours ago|

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I think that's the point the parent comment was making.

by thephyber12 hours ago|

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No, the parent was saying the other rule change is arbitrary.

The tiny float and just a few days before the index funds buy means they have to buy without any more revenue / earnings info than was already published pre-IPO. 90 days is a quarter, so there WILL be more price discovery before a 0 day index fund seasoning period.

by thephyber12 hours ago|

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How about 1 more quarter of earning reports and estimates?

by HWR_1413 hours ago|

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SpaceX is slowly and steadily increasing the float over the first 6 months by having a rolling end to the lockup. The only major cliff will be Elons shares

by lostlogin10 hours ago|

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> The only major cliff will be Elons shares

You can’t imagine a scenario where he goes lunatic and does something wild (again)?

by rlt13 hours ago|

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Steadily starting about 60 days (Q2 earnings) after the IPO.

by throwaway203711 hours ago|

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    > The only major cliff will be Elons shares

Do you really think he would see a large portion of his shares on his unlock date? If so, why? What would he do with the capital?

by HWR_1456 minutes ago|

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I don't think he'll sell a large portion of his shares. My point was that when his shares become sellable will be the only time there is a giant leap in available shares. Because everyone else will be able to sell some of their shares in regular intervals.

by throwaway203749 minutes ago|

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    > My point was that when his shares become sellable will be the only time there is a giant leap in available shares.

Fair point and well-stated.

Another thing that is special about Musk's "vesting cliff": He has the longest in modern history: one full year. I cannot think of any other IPO in the last 10 years where the founder had such a strict/long vesting cliff. While I think the "super shares" (with 10x voting rights) are bullshit, I do think the very long vesting cliff is a good sign.

by andruby8 hours ago|

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Off-load some of them when the valuation is _to the moon_ from AI and then later he'll force shareholders and the board to gift him even more shares then he sold.

by Forgeties7911 hours ago|

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There is a world of difference between 5 and 90 days, even if you aggressively stick to the “time in the market over timing the market” strategy. If it wasn’t of consequence, then they wouldn’t be attempting to change the rules. And if SpaceX is such a great long-term investment, then they shouldn’t need the advantages this provide. Join the index funds like any other company. Let the market sort itself out.