By the time you see the applications, the market will have moved on to value the next set of future cash flows.
If the market only valued the obvious, investors would jump in to buy the price up, until it met the average expectations.
The market might be wrong, but the question is not: "Have you yet to see?", but rather, "What do you see in the next three to five years?"
Otherwise, how could investors ever invest in a startup?
Startups never have revenues to justify their initial valuations.
It's a bet on the future.
Investors are future looking.
Consumers are present looking.
We didn't see LLM harnesses coming even two years ago. Now they generate billions per month.
Investors can't wait until reality materializes to make their estimations of the future.
That's why investing is hard.
You have to try to predict the future.
Sir, this is a casino/Keynesian Beauty Contest.
Markets value what the market participants think the other participants will value. On occasion, this intersects with reality.
I find it interesting that using lines of code as a metric is making a comeback.
How many millions of emails do you think are composed using ChatGPT? How many legal briefs were reviewed by AI? How many businesses use AI generated art? How many kids do their homework using ChatGPT?
The GP is arguing that AI has struggled to replace humans, but in so many roles AI is doing the heavy lifting and humans are copying its output.
The homework "help" industry (i.e. paying for answers) is dead. Chegg stock fell 99% because of ChatGPT.
Stock photography is rapidly dying, nobody will pay for shutterstock when ChatGPT can generate a passable image for free.
ChatGPT is killing studio photography, it can generate great looking studio photos for free.
Same with basic graphic design / custom art commissions.
SEO / copywriting has been almost fully replaced by AI. Companies no longer pay writers to churn out SEO slop, and now the web is full of AI generated SEO spam.
Customer service as a job is dying and is rapidly being replaced by AI chatbots.
I can go on, but these are the major ones.
On top of that, you are showing another stark bias in considering the US experience as the global experience. It is not, and education in particular works way differently, aka, it's not a business wild west.
Cognitive surrender in writing emails is another shaky ground: do you honestly think that AI's worth the tens of trillion the tech bros are claiming it'll be worth as a glorified email-maker?
I will add that my point still stands. If you say this:
>>ChatGPT is killing studio photography, it can generate great looking studio photos for free. Same with basic graphic design / custom art commissions.
the only point you're proving is that you don't understand shit about photography as a business, nor about design as a business. AI is being rapidly integrated, for sure, but it has not upended those industries, and the average mediocrity it produces (because of its very nature) is not even close to replacing what you claim it is.
You asked about data, and I have it, and here it is: Chegg's CEO explicitly stated in their earnings call that ChatGPT was directly responsible for their collapse. Chegg stock fell 99%. You can verify this fact yourself. ChatGPT led to the near-destruction of a $14 billion company.
On photography and design: your counterargument is entirely assertion. You're claiming I don't understand those industries without demonstrating that you do. There is demonstrable fact AI has absolutely upended both industries. AI has gutted the commodity tier that constitutes the vast majority of revenue volume. Product shots, website graphics, social media content, marketing material. AI produces this content for free, at a quality so good that millions of people believe it's real. You only consider the high-end, professional market, which so far has been relatively untouched.
Your only valid criticism is that my argument is US-centric. Fair enough. But ChatGPT has 700 million users globally, and you've produced zero evidence that non-US markets are insulated from the trends happening in the US.
Chegg shares drop more than 40% after company says ChatGPT is killing its business https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/02/chegg-drops-more-than-40perc...
Otherwise Github wouldn't have 14% down time in the last 3 months.
What is _the proof_ if all the proofs are not _proofs_?
I don't babysit my LLM based services which are used by coaches and clients around the world. One of my LLM based solution get 30-4k daily hits and I have users coming back on the regular to use it. without babysitting, doing things that would take them hours of manual work and research.
I don't babysit the developers I work with and our clients, which both use LLM's themselves and at scale with their clients, serving all kinds of LLM powered services to millions of users worldwide.
You are not "seeing" the large adoption because:
- The technology is "a few years old" in its usable state - The corporate adoption cycle is slow - You have to understand the technology to use it in a good way, which most corporate devs and PM's do not
So it will take a bit for the "obvious" adaptation on large scale.
But you won't "know" when the large adoption happens.
Silent inference is growing every day, and that is what real adoption looks like - not an LLM being in your face chatbox, but running in the background, sorting, finding, fixing things, aligning data, figuring out analytics, tuning the ads, cleaning the datasets.