I also think its hard to know when it will pop. The Chinese real state bubble you are quoting is indeed a very good example. Everyone knew the prices were super high but no one really knew when it would blow. The state had a problem and they knew they had to stop it eventually. After/during the covid pandemic the state decided to start a slogan "houses are for living not for speculating" and they started to set redlines for leveraging and developing. If you know how financing works in china you know many of it flows through the state and related companies and financial structures. Then also when one of the biggest developers in the country blew up they left it to blow instead of buying it. They essentially popped it with policy.

So many would say the saw it coming but the truth is only people with inside info really knew when it would happen for sure.

Same happens today. Capital is being heavily allocated towards AI inference and infra because of the promised productivity. Nobody knows if its early or late and also nobody knows how will the state react to a possible bubble exploding. Some people would say maybe AI is too big to fall already and its better if we save it when it falls. Some people would say its better to let it blow up but again nobody knows what will truly happen until we get there.

Bubbles are extremely predictable. The problem is predicting when it will come crashing down.