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> Most video is going to be AI in the near future

That's like saying all fine art would be photography, all film would be CGI, or all music would be synthesized electronica.

That's not how aesthetics seem to work. Artists will make more or less good use of generative AI in their work, and it will probably seep into most media in some way or another, effecting them, but arts mostly don't get replaced and AI doesn't really offer an exception to that history.

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> That's like saying all fine art would be photography

Or is it like saying most portraits will be photographs rather than paintings? There are still a lot of portraits painted (maybe even as many as the pre-camera days), but by raw numbers most portraits are created by photographers.

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There will also be a longer or shorter period of time in which such technology will be abused by artists (because it's new) and at some point it will stabilize.
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It's saying most art will be created with AI.

Like saying most pictures will be made with digital cameras.

Like saying most music will be captured and edited digitally.

You guys have an anti-AI bug and it's eating you alive and blinding you to the future that is unfolding. It's toxic and you're all 100% wrong. Your hate makes it impossible to see all of the improvements.

I've been a filmmaker for decades. This tech is the most amazing thing I've ever witnessed. And it's just getting started.

Stop being old men yelling at clouds. If you don't like it, you can continue doing things the way you're used to.

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The quantity/quality tradeoff is horrific. And I speak as someone who's watched hundreds of low budget "B" movies. AI is going to allow churning out vastly more movies than anyone can ever watch. Even if some might be good, the average quality goes down, and the adverse selection problem of trying to decide if something is going to be worth committing two hours to becomes harder when you have to scroll for longer and longer distances.

There's already a bit of a fatigue with CGI and the "flat lighting" Netflix TV style. AI is just going to make that worse. Mind you, I'm old enough that I would call any movie where more than 50% of the frame for more than 50% of the runtime was never real objects and created entirely on computer "animation". It's a subtly different discipline.

But yes, there's going to be a lot of it, and it's going to rack up a lot of Netflix watch hours, in the same way that "4k crackling fireplace" does.

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It seems like you have trouble handling the idea that people disagree with you. You should try listening instead of immediately jumping to being reactionary.
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It isn't like saying any of those things because they are referring to recording media and not to a pipe dream invented by tech bros to attract investors so that their deeply-in-the-red company can stay afloat a little while longer. AI can't create anything.
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> AI can’t create anything

Individuals are now making eight-minute movies with AI that are definitely wandering across the line of “watchable” into “entertaining”:

https://youtu.be/gtnt84CDP-s

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It isn't like saying any of those things because they are referring to recording media and not to a pipe dream invented by tech bros to attract investors so that their deeply-in-the-red company can stay afloat a little while longer. AI can't create anything.

How do you know you aren't arguing with one now?

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>You guys have an anti-AI bug and it's eating you alive and blinding you to the future that is unfolding

For the moment what is unfolding is a dystopia shoved down most people's throats, whether they want it or not.

And the bug is obviously the "AI bug", a foreign body recently introduced. The "bug" can't be our default previous state (no AI).

>I've been a filmmaker for decades. This tech is the most amazing thing I've ever witnessed. And it's just getting started

Hopefully it will be over soon.

>Stop being old men yelling at clouds

You know that the leading AI providers and experts in the field often discuss how AI can/might/surely will wipe us off? Not some random guys with signs in some street corner. The main people behind it.

Now, I don't believe it's so, at least not for the reasons mentioned, like the singularity. But there are very dark results from AI in society and in many domains.

But hey, we can make pretty uncanny valley (for now) videos and special effects! No need to involve or employ humans in our art either. And the human art can be drowned in a sea of AI crap, so noone will really see our AI art either. Such amazing tech /s

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Aren’t the cameras they are making aimed at professional productions? Those are probably going to replaced last, the first thing will be (or are) TikTok clips shot on smartphones.

I don’t think they’ll see a decline in cinema camera sales due to AI soon.

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> I don’t think they’ll see a decline in cinema camera sales due to AI soon.

Happy to bet on this!

Expensive glass and all of the processes around it takes more time, money, and resources than Seedance 2.0. And these models are only a few years old at this point.

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> Expensive glass and all of the processes around it takes more time, money, and resources than Seedance 2.0.

Sure, but the results will also seem better to a cinematographer.

When do you expect the first movie with fully 3D-generated imagery (which would mean that a camera was actually replaced by AI) will be released?

I can imagine it will happen at some point, but I don't see it soon.

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Yeah they don't make a single consumer grade product. Prosumer at its lowest, and even then they're way too technical for the uninitiated. No one is picking up a BMPCC and just shooting/posting online.
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Why do you believe this? Are you expecting all media to become fully AI - sports, TV, movies, youtube?
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They've been spamming slop project submissions the last few months. But then again, who isn't?
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I doubt it because I wouldn't waste my time watching it and I can't imagine all that many people today that don't already watch AI videos are going to suddenly change their mind and decide they like AI produced Hallmark movies.
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For commercial use maybe. Not for documentary or personal use.

Actually what ruins camera businesses are smartphones, not AI.

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"AI makes real world obsolete." I think that's enough hacker news for today.
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No way.

Even the frontier models running on insanely powerful hardware could only generate 15 second clips in low resolutions.

And yeah, I saw some demos from Seedance 2.0, and they were awful. It's ridiculous how much people on Xitter were like "You can't even tell it's AI!" and I was like "It's trivial to tell it's AI" and could easily pick out all the markers. An individual screenshot could look good, but every time the camera angle changed, there would be a glaring inconsistency.

You people are either blind, delusional, or outright insane. AI might be used for a quick clip, or used to enhance something recorded by a camera, but "most video" is definitely wrong.

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God I hope not. That’s depressing.
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Even more reason to check out.
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So live A/V is just dead now? Movies are dead? I really don't get where this take is coming from.
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> So live A/V is just dead now?

I'm an indie filmmaker and I do community theater. We use gaussian splats for 3D filmmaking, and we're already using AI for background plates and VFX shots.

Where this is going - your local community theater will be able to have Lord of the Rings / Gollum-style facial/body rigs that eventually work in real time, and actors will markerless mocap into super high fidelity fantasy and science fiction scenes.

> Movies are dead? I really don't get where this take is coming from.

Movies will never be more real and more personal. The folks at A24 are going to have Marvel powers with way better stories.

Stop being so bearish. These are tools, and creative people will abuse the hell out of them to do wildly cool things.

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I’m not bearish. I’m incredulous at their statements and agree with you. Take a second look at it.

Good luck on your journey as a filmmaker (truly not being sarcastic), I’ve been in the industry for 15 years so we are colleagues here who can have a dialogue.

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You are only looking at your own consumption at the moment. There are a lot of problems that still need to be fixed especially with rope artifacting. The 4k most models taunt isn't equivalent to a real 4k image or video as well at the moment you need a quality factor of two to get the equivalent result of a shot image or video. Resolution does not indicate quality.
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