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AI may get so commoditized for certain use cases that you will not even be able sell inference at a profit. AI might be bundled in with other services, just like cursor bundles in their own AI model for auto complete with their editor. I.e. cameras might have AI for image recognition bundled in etc.
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Agreed, this is where google is really, really set up to win the market. They can combine gemini subscription with a moderately more expensive google workspace and steal MSFTs entire $50 billion enterprise productivity software market. MSFT is quickly trying to get copilot in a good enough state but without TPUs I think itll be tough for them to serve a good enough model at a price people will accept.
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I agree with all of this.

So my question remains the same: How are the players investing 100s of billions in buildout going to hope to make this back? Market capture looks bleak, inference looks like a race to the bottom. End users look like they could be beneficiaries. Where do the big boys go?

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The American big boys are hoping to create "labor as a service" rather than sell tools. You don't hire an accountant that uses Claude, you hire Claude and it just does everything, without the visibility of current agents. They'll need to make it remote and obfuscated to protect their secret sauce from distillation and reverse engineering. It'll be really expensive, and be focused on enabling rich business types and upper managers.
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