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Just to go on record, as of today, I’m a big believer that a person that knows all that stuff is much more productive with AI-coding than a person who doesn’t.

I have no idea how we can get people motivated to learn these through trial-and-error when AI coding exists though. I remember the days of spending hours on stupid bugs that AI can resolve within a minute. But I recall learning heavily from those experiences. Oh well…

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yes, but a person who doesn't know any of this stuff is infinitely more productive with ai than someone who isn't when it comes to many things.

we've got product folks vibing out prototypes (not shippable but clickable) in our main front end in a few minutes to an hour. This would previously have involved 3 people and several weeks, or a ton of figma and documents to fill in the gaps. This saves weeks to months and lets them really experience the items.

Then they hand it off to someone who knows all that stuff who is also using AI and the impl also gets done faster.

The PMs are either moving infinitely faster, or at least 30x faster and not blocked constantly by others.

basically you're not comparing people who don't know much (tech) with those who do, you're comparing them before and after access to AI.

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I like the presentation I heard from a Principal, that AI tools amplify your competence. If you start out incompetent, it'll just allow you to be incompetent with greater scope and (negative) impact.
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I honestly feel like my own learning has accelerated after using AI. Simply because now it's so easy to write the same thing in so many different languages, I can e.g. learn pros and cons of each language, which otherwise would have been I think unfathomable to me. I have now created so much stuff I wouldn't have had time to create.

I setup k3s, and tons of what would be otherwise unnecessarily complicated stuff on my laptop for my side projects with additional home servers, smart house stuff. Otherwise k8s and things like that would have been daunting to learn and in theory and without constant professional exposure, etc...

Microservices in Go, Rust, which I didn't have any previous experience with, games in C and other languages. Didn't know anything about low level memory management before. Was just mainly TypeScript person. Just constantly building random fun stuff.

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The question is if you already had intuitive understanding of what those things “are”. The languages and systems have been easier to learn once you picked up a couple. Same applies here as well.

The question is, how quickly does a junior with no experience builds intuition without trial and error.

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But surely, it's a matter of curiousity? If you are curious you will naturally want to look deeper to understand what is going on. If you are not curious, then you wouldn't have done very well before either.
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When I started I learnt something about coding from VBA macros to automate excel.

Often that started with the macro recorder. Then you worked out what that "recorded" code/sludge did, removed the crud you didn't need or want, improved the logic and so on. I bought books to understand it better. Now you can ask a (different) LLM "what is this? why is it used? How would I?" etc which is probably a faster learning curve than books, newsgroups and old school personal home pages with good info.

I would have been quite surprised when I first used a VBA macro in anger just how far I would go down the rabbit hole. C, asm, verilog, Linux were no part of what I originally signed up for!

Some people will specialise in the equivalent of recording macros and go no further. And this will be fine for code that gets it done but doesn't matter too much in the other dimensions (security, reliability, usefulness without the authors' support, etc.) Much like VBA utilities inside companies that were useful way back when. Other people will want what they produce to be better, even good, and they will learn about floating point [1] and all the rest, much as I did. Probably learn pretty fast too. [2]

[1] https://docs.oracle.com/cd/E19957-01/806-3568/ncg_goldberg.h...

[2] Working out how to write an excel vba webserver and using it to collect and and collate summary data from various divisions into reports was seedy as hell, solved the actual business problem (given ridiculous but intractable constraints) and isn't something you can record. We all have stories from a misspent youth that we're simultaneously ashamed and yet somehow proud of.

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And, you don't have to vibe code. A competent developer can make great use of AI. I think a developer that can develop the system themselves is the most accelerated user.
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> You don't actually need to know the answer to those questions in order to vibe code

No, but you do need to know the answer to respond to that 3AM page about prod being down.

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