Worst case, you could CREATE MATERIALIZED VIEW whatever would've happened in that temp table.
At the end of the day, your single query will be faster.
Every major database uses nested loop, hash, or sort-merge joins. If the data is small enough to fetch in a second query, I don't see any scenario where it would make a query spill to disk when it otherwise wouldn't have (except those pesky OR's).
Most JOIN issues can be resolved by composing using sub-queries/CTE's to defer a join to a smaller intermediary result, and the only time this generally can't be done is if you need a predicate on the joined table.
> you've asked the database engine to sort things
I've only found this to be true when there's an OR condition where the single query ends up doing a bitmap against every row, in which case a UNION will be faster since it's just appending two already-index-ordered streams.
> Same with UNION vs IN
A union is almost always going to be worse - most query planners cannot optimize across queries in a UNION, so each query is going to have separate ops vs. a single op with the IN. The only case I've seen this be true is for multi-column predicates with an OR clause against a composite index. I just tested the former in both Postgres and MSSQL and the UNION query cost was 2x the IN clause.
> maybe it decides to do an index scan which takes longer
This has not been my experience unless the table statistics are bad.