It feels like being in the middle of a tornado. But I think it helps to turn off screens, sit in a desk, and calmly remember first principles and consider them slowly.
Quoting obama, "reality has a way of catching up with you".
I see a lot of talk, but iOS is not delivering a decade of features and fixes on each yearly release. Literally no one does, if anything people are complaining that existing functionality is breaking down. So it can't be true that we're at 10x productivity, and this fact will eventually catch up with us.
Let's be human, and remember that many people are emotionally invested. Juniors want this to be a chance to shine in a market that otherwise rejected them. CEOs placed their bet on AI and don't want to walk that back. Seniors want to signal that they are not obsolete. AI companies will poison discourse. But all this smoke will eventually clear.
It's quite hard to quantify, but I think it's one shot nature really makes it hard to gauge it's capability
Friends have spoken of good days and bad coding days with me, and I find it odd nodding along, it's a strange new normal
At times it feels like we're just coding with one-armed bandits, trying to carefully line them up for a jackpot and just discarding and retrying if we don't hit
I think about some of the more complex systems I've built and I wonder how well we can build them like this
And over engineering, there seems to be over engineering everywhere, and yet, more fragility to our systems
It's all a little surreal
Or trying to reduce complexity, increasing readability and coherence of variable names (the opposite of code golf if you will), while staying within a certain limit of performance regression (e.g. "make this code as nice as you can while making it at most 0.5% slower").
Making the stuff millions of people have been using for decades better, in a way that also makes it better for humans when they read the code. Surely that's possible, some people are probably doing it but it doesn't go viral as much, because it's too mundane.
And of course, making new stuff is more exciting. I mean, you could hit on something with a vibe coded thing, and then know it's now worth to make a non-sloppy version, but you won't get much fame for making ffmpeg twice as fast by prompting an LLM. Though on the other hand, it's like a safe investment (if not in "fame", then in "improving the stuff we all have to use daily"), because you know ffmpeg and many many other things will still be around, whereas a vibe coded thing that wasn't special will be 100% forgotten the next day, or have just the one user forever.
I actually am training 2 trainees (Azubi in German) and 1 working student. All three are somewhat anxious about the future but also all are learning in a significantly increased pace, compared to the ones I worked with 1.5 years ago.
They don't have to wait for random senior to answer questions, so they get stuck way less often. They aren't allowed to use AI to generate code though, so not sure how that'd look like learning-wise if we/they went all-in on AI.
It’s been enormously alienating talking to laypeople about the apocalyptic atmosphere in the tech world, while for them ChatGPT is a cool piece of software but the world still hasn’t changed very much. They look at me bug eyed when I tell them how dramatically software engineering has changed in the matter of a couple years. We are in a bubble, or we’re just, as you say, in the eye of the cyclone which still has to hit the rest of the world.
This is insinuating that code was the bottleneck in the first place, or that every line of code is to build a new feature and not fixing existing bugs, or that apple didn't lay off enough engineers and reallocate resources to other departments to make up for the productivity boost.
I do think that companies with poor AI practices will eventually pay the piper in the form of technical debt or debilitating bugs. But let's not equate a productivity boost with a boost in releasing features, because there's plenty of business reasons to not release thousands of new features every year.
I agree with you on the rest of your points. Eventually the smoke will clear. What awaits to be seen is who is left standing when it does? I don't think I like the answer to that question.
I wish I could be so optimistic. Our lives are ruled by distorted, irrational, inefficient, failed markets, and the markets can remain distorted, irrational, inefficient, and failed for longer than we as individuals can remain solvent. "In the long term the market is a weighing machine", for term lengths that include the heat death of the universe.
But the simple fact is there's massive evidence that in skilled hands 10x or 100x engineers are possible. We're seeing evidence of it across major open source project as well. And definitely behind closed doors across companies.
Reality will catch-up with that too, once the other smoke clears.
Reduce your scale: "100x achieves in 1 hour what used to take 1 week."
One year of work could require levels of complexity and human judgement that can't be accelerated past a certain point.
1 week of work can be reduced to an hour and some change.
Besides 1h what used to to take 1 week is basically 40x given a workweek is 40h.
If one week of work can be reduced to an hour, then you should be able to complete a year's worth of work in 50 hours. If you break that into two 25-hour weeks (because a 40x dev earns the right to loaf?), what is that dev doing for the other 50 weeks in the year? What is making them so incredibly unproductive 50 out of 52 weeks in a year?
In other words, if you include everything that's required to create useful software then 100x turns out to be a fantasy.
This is especially bad with new, or quickly improving frameworks, like Android Compose. LLMs use completely outdated, deprecated APIs all the time, when they are not completely supervised. Or at least, I hope so that the framework causes it. Because if that’s not the case, then your products are fucked.
Also even with the best prompts it could never produce more working code in an hour than what I can produce in a day. Regardless of quality, just “working somehow”. Not even with an uninterrupted session. If that’s the case for some, then there is definitely also a developer skill issue. And so would definitely not trust anything coming out of their “supervision” of an LLM.
Each of these three sentences are in need of some evidence. I'm not actually seing any signs of software velocity notably increasing anywhere. Except perhaps in the AI-reseller sphere, but that seems mostly due to throwing huge amounts of VC money at it and a lack of quality control.
I still believe that. 250 lines of tight code that solves a specific problem in a way that others can maintain will always be better than 25k lines of code that's difficult to review and consume (and, therefore, becoming a liability).
A year of that is 1.3M code: the size of systemd, or postgres.
Can you imagine a single person writing systemd (not a POC, the current version feature complete and battle tested) from scratch in a year? If so can you point me to any such project?
I don't think you could get to 1.3M lines of production code, but people say AI agents are good at writing tests. I could imagine that if you had an unlimited budget you could set up agents to generate lots and lots of tests and comments, inflating your weekly total. Like, maybe you can set up an agent to loop against a code coverage tool trying to generate more and more tests to hit MC / DC levels of testing.
In the extreme / absurd case, if you could hit the SQLite ratio of 590x lines of test code vs real code then 25,000 lines of code per week could be 43 lines of production code and 24,958 lines of test code.
You'd be a "100x programmer" in terms of lines of code output, but that would not get you to SystemD levels of production code in a year.
I can't point you to a project taking that route, and I don't have the budget to try it, but I can imagine someone hitting 25k lines of code per week with lots of tests and comments padding the numbers.
I am not sure software written that way would be any good though.
I do think it is hype as a killer of knowledge work. It can certainly remove a lot of friction in the kind of borderline mechanical work that you'd formerly outsource to the lowest priced denominator, serve as an idea bouncer, remove friction for bug tracing, etc.
Attempts to cross the next line ("no need for architecture discussions, ai plans", "no need to read the code, ai reviews", and so on), nope.
As someone else mentioned, 100x is a couple days producing the outcomes (remember, not output) of a year. Or for a team, iOS delivering in a single year ten times as many features as its entire previous existence. It's not something that doesn't get noticed.
At my large org (+100 engineers), I'd say it's a mixed bag and the overall impact of AI rollout looks to be slightly negative productivity.
They probably won't say it publicly though.
It's not because some people are more productive with it that all of them are and it certainly doesn't mean that the company itself is more productive either as you have other things than code to take into account.
These "contributions", while they did exist in small quantities, mostly were not actually what you've described there.
Instead, those boiled down to unsolicited opinions, hostile takeover attempts, value extraction, general drama and just overall overhead over simply building code.
This was not always the case, but the GitHub model of building FOSS (and removal of all friction) certainly made it the new default.
Said model was always unsustainable, but the burn rate made it sustainable enough so that we could just throw more humans at the problem to replace the burnt-out ones.
AI pushed the burn rate over the replacement rate.
=> We will likely see more projects adapt this or a similar stance I think.
What do you mean you just spent a week implementing something in secret?
AI makes it extra silly because now you can craft up your unsolicited code change in minutes, making it extra obvious that code changes should spawn from real discussion and agreement.
TFA is part of looking for new processes that actually work. Dunno why people are having such rose tinted glasses about pull requests. Open an issue, talk to people. Have an idea? Then get people to cosign it.
Now they can drop a multi thousand line poorly understood PR day 1.
What I don't get, is why these LLM users aren't asking their LLM for how to contribute and how the project prefers to contribute, and how they can make sure it's accepted? Literally, the very same tools they use to code, can be used to make sure their PR follows all guidelines, from discussions to acceptance of the PR itself, it's right there, they literally just have to prompt for it! Such a lazy group of people.
AI just makes it so obvious how bad of a process it is that we can't ignore it anymore, and now we need to finally figure out good processes.
Even little stuff like: I've created issues on the Claude Code github that got agreement and then led to code changes. Why isn't there a default, built-in way for my issues to rise above the zero-effort chaff? If you finally do the work of vetting someone's PR, why isn't there a built-in (hidden) way to +1 someone so we can see that they have some reputation with the project on their future issues/PRs?
I don't really have anything useful to add here, I think, just that you aren't alone in feeling conflicting feelings here. New things usually are like that, comes with incredible benefits in some areas yet seem to strip humanity away from others, some people use it to produce fluff and crap, others essentially gain new abilities and use those to build even better stuff. I don't think there is any universal truths here, sadly.
Maybe your legislative feels bought out, that sucks, but that's not the situation nor the feeling everywhere in the world, certainly not where I live, so also doesn't seem to be related although if I assume where you live, I totally understand why you're currently feeling like that.
Do you expect your government to navigate whatever transition might await us in a manner that works out well for the vast majority of your countrymen? What about the governments of other major world powers? Even if your local government does all the right things, will the world as a whole end up in a good place?
That said, I'm not sure that there's much in the way of actionable options, at least not with clearly defined outcomes.
No, but I expect them to do the best they can, with the information they have available, as always, as they just like me, are just humans. Trusting the legislative branch of my government is different from "so you think it'll work out well for everyone then huh?", btw.
> What about the governments of other major world powers?
Why does it matter how much I trust the legislative branch from other countries? They do as they wish, we continue to do as we wish.
> Even if your local government does all the right things, will the world as a whole end up in a good place?
My experience and opinion is that generally the world is getting better almost every day, vast difference even compared to ten years ago, how much better the world is today, for most people. There are some few countries which lately been going in the wrong direction, but for the most part, we (humanity) are getting incrementally better.
Agreed, and that was exactly my point. Concern about possible impacts of a technology were expressed and you responded that you trust your government. But that's not the same as thinking that everything is headed in a good direction and doesn't require intervention.
> Why does it matter how much I trust the legislative branch from other countries?
Because in a globalized world if everyone else goes to shit you will probably also experience significant negative effects even if it's not as bad.
> for the most part, we (humanity) are getting incrementally better.
It seems to me that it's prudent to perform a risk assessment rather than assuming that everything will work out just because things seem to have been going well enough so far.
I'm also conflicted but take a glass half full approach basing myself on the fact that when I'm feeling like "this time is different" it's probably my ego wanting my lifetime to happen at an interesting time in history, so my brain wants the current events to be the most transformative.
No. Electricity didn't raise the skill floor all that much. Certainly nowhere near the human skill ceiling.
> the internet would kill all street level businesses
That was never going to happen overnight, if at all. But online retail (and food delivery, etc) does seem to be slowly but surely eating away at local shops so I think it's within the realm of possibility.
Online retail eating away at local shops is a problem with two aspects - one of which is largely ignored and much more pernicious.
Yes, many people are shopping online which reduces footfall in the town centres. If this were a case of all the existing businesses simply shifting away from physical storefronts to virtual ones it would merely be unfortunate.
What's far worse is that the vast majority of the business that shifted away from a diverse collection of bricks-and-mortar stores now goes through one of a very few online retail giants.
Likewise, a couple of food delivery apps are parasitising takeaway food businesses.
And now we're allowing a handful of AI giants to tollbooth software development.
Very easy to say that in hindsight.
As in cheer for the humans because they've been liberated from the drudgery they have lost?
The future is a bit fuzzy, always. That said, here's my take on it.
> Transition to f-ing what though?
Not jobs. Those will be gone once ai can do them cheaper than humans. ai can already do many (most?) of them better than humans. The jury is still out on the cost aspect. Judging by r/LocalLlama, the lower cost is not that far off. There may be some structural adjustments around compute pricing before that happens, though.
In the EU, humans will probably be ok. They have a strong tradition of focus on human needs. Because of lower average salaries [1] than the US [2], human employment will likely carry on longer as well.
In the US, those folks that have capital will likely be ok. They'll be able to purchase services from ai companies and invest in ai companies and corporate armed forces (ai-populated, not human) to protect the Haves. Those that don't have capital? Who knows? America hates poor people, women and minorities.
China? No idea. Though I hear that their demographics are upside-down, so there'll be fewer people to support over the long-term. That they'll supply the robotics and goods for the rest of the world is not in doubt: cheaper electricity from solar/wind, advanced ai and robotic tech, science and industry moving forward while the US regresses, hard.
India? Hard to say. No social net of any consequence. Not enough capital to go full ai/robotics, human labor way cheaper than ai/robotic labor at the moment, so maybe they'll survive as that last major bastion of human work for some time to come. But their economy is growing, and they have a lot of people, so at some point they'll come to that same fork in the road. Hopefully they'll have serious social safety nets by that time.
Africa? In a lot of ways, they're similar to India on the human labor costs side, so their future hasn't been written yet either. India can probably fend off an invasion by rapacious US corporates with ai/robotic armies looking for resources because of sheer numbers, but Africa, fragmented, is a different story. Maybe China will be their friend? If you think this scenario is outlandish, look into the history of European companies colonizing the world. You didn't think the East India Company with its massive private armies were government-owned, did you? Likewise with the Spanish/Dutch/Portugese expansions. The govt. takeovers didn't happen until much later, tens of decades later.
South America? They're an interesting case. Brazil may take a trajectory similar to the EU. Chile, Ecuador, Uruguay too. The others are a ?
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_European_Union [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_States
Stickers start conversations with people I have common interests with in unexpected places. I didn't know of this effect until I experienced it a couple of times, so that's why I keep them.
The reason I started was, to be completely honest with you, to show off my "skills" and beliefs. To be fair, I was much younger and naive.
Strong evidence against your implied accusation of me being insane is the fact that my licensed therapist not having me sent to an intensive psychiatry clinic yet. She says we'll be fine within the limited hours we get courtesy of the German health care system.
I do have ADHD and I do feel different all the time, and I tend to go off course when talking/writing, so maybe you mean that?
This is asinine. Keep depriving yourself of things you enjoy I guess?
Movie studios are "signing" AI artists from AI studios for massive dollars; this is happening.
Maybe you don't care, but music is beautiful and difficult, and I really enjoy hearing works from people that have a passion for it.
You don't have to worry, though; most people are in your school of thought. "Who cares? It's good." Short-term thinking is best-term thinking.
I wouldn't say it's asinine though. People reject creative output out of personal protest against the creator. Someone might love a movie only to refuse to ever watch it again because they found out the director was accused of something horrible.
Some people just don't want to support anything to do with AI. Although in this case the OP admits to also using AI directly so there's some inconsistency there, which is consistent with the state of confusion and uncertainty OP is expressing.
how was open source managed before GitHub ? you had to find a mailing list, be involved in the mailing list - ask questions, make a proposal, then create code after -- code goes through x rounds in the mailing list. finally it is merged if it suits direction of the project.
this willy nilly of opening pr's while not being an active member of a community I would say decimated open source.
Maybe, just maybe, you're not thinking rationally/logically about the situation and instead are mostly operating on emotion and feelings?
Have you ever had an experience where, by all calculations, you should be happy with the outcome but for whatever reason you're not?
In some ways, that is the state of the internet today. Everything is optimized based on analytics, but so many of use are unhappy with how things are.