https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.21691
There's of course empirical results and relatively weak theoretical results like the UAT but I also don't think that answers your question fully, especially since it seems impossible to definitively answer questions that the industry seems to betting on like whether or not there is a lower bound to their error rate or whether hallucination as a problem can be solved. We have much stronger ideas of what linear regression is doing relative to what LLMs are doing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5MdSE-N0bxs is remarkably prescient given that it was written before LLMs