Amazon wasn't profitable because it reinvested earnings into growth, while SpaceX is funding it's growth by taking on very significant levels of debt (which will take a big chunk of future earnings just to service). These aren't comparable from a risk perspective.
Was this obvious early on?
But anyway, it's also clear SpaceX isn't doing the same as Amazon.
Sure, but we the only thing we know about the company is the current S1 filing. Need to time to see what all of that looks like. Fast tracking it and essentially forcing other people to buy without scrutinizing is the problem. They may very well be worth the money they claim, but we won't know until after they've proven it. That's what the rules are there for.
There is plenty of evidence of growth. The problem is SpaceX as it is is a conglomerate recently cobbled together, and so estimating what it is and what it's going to do is challenging.
We don't have good public numbers, but that should be over $13B in revenue and about $2B of income over the last 12 months. Given the growth trend of that 5 years, that approx. $2B of income is likely to double by the end of this year.
Add to that the space launch business around Falcon 9, which had 40+ commercial launches that generated about $4B revenue and something close to $3B of income, and SpaceX was looking strong.
Again, SpaceX isn't what it was 6 months ago, before all the xAI fuckery, but the core business, Starlink and space launch, are doing well by themselves.
Is it really owned by them if Elon retains most of the voting rights anyway?
Look at Tesla and their hard pivot to humanoid robots. He is all in on robots which about a dozen other companies already make and are largely unprofitable in making. He is betting AI rapidly improves in a way that allows robots to become rapidly more useful and there is zero evidence that is feasible in the next 5 - 10 years.
Owned by various folks. Controlled by Elon. Granted, I don't know how Texas law deals with minority rights.
Amazon met profitability requirements and went into the SP500 at around $2.40 in November 2005. Two years before it was $2.70. Six Years before it was $4.40.
Two years _after_ listing it was $4.50. Six years after it was ~$10.
Waiting for profitability seems like it was a good bet.