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by asdfaoeu10 hours ago |
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upvoteby JumpCrisscross10 hours ago|
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> AI can still have a massive impact while these three companies go nowhere

These three companies can do great while their valuations go nowhere.

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upvoteby orwin10 hours ago|
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Which is unlikely considering their obligations. I'm a bit more optimistic about SpaceX (and anthropic to a lower degree), but if free models keep improving at the same rate as frontier models, their won't be any profit from AI.
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upvoteby have_faith8 hours ago|
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What’s the time horizon do you think for free models matching today’s SOTA on average consumer hardware? I see people building 6k+ machines to run the best of them at the moment, which are behind SOTA by maybe 6 - 12 months or so right now.
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upvoteby CuriouslyC8 hours ago|
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Open models lag the frontier ~3-6 months, though they're likely smaller than frontier models as well so that lag might not be fully real. Qwen 3.6 27B is very usable for average coding, and Gemma4 31b is very usable for day to day tasks.

The problem there isn't the models, it's consumer hardware. Even 16GB cards aren't the norm, and even with massive improvements in per-parameter performance we probably still need 48GB memory to get models that feel smart enough to trust.

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upvoteby everforward6 hours ago|
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“Average” is also doing terrible things there. The “average GPU” is probably the integrated graphics on the CPU of a laptop.

If you scoped it to “average gaming desktop”, double digit VRAM is pretty normal at this point. If costs came down, I imagine the higher end GPUs would start including enough VRAM for 30B-ish models.

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upvoteby abustamam7 hours ago|
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I don't think free/open model necessarily means local. I use open code Go for $10/mo for pet projects and deepseek v4 pro is largely comparable to my workflow at work using Claude code. Obviously this wouldn't work for someone wanting to do more than just per projects (I hit my weekly quota 5 days in, on basic usage) but I'm just saying that local doesn't have to be part of the equation
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upvoteby lelanthran8 hours ago|
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> These three companies can do great while their valuations go nowhere.

How? They're building out on debt. The investors need to offload at a profit otherwise the company can't sell more shares to acquire the cash needed (share price too low).

Sure, it's possible that a recent IPO does poorly but the company soldiers on regardless, but it's not likely.

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upvoteby JumpCrisscross8 hours ago|
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> They're building out on debt

SpaceX sort of is. OpenAI almost certainly is. Anthropic doesn't appear to be.

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