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If big tech ends up seeing a 40-50% draw down in the next 2-3 years, what ETF is best equipped to limit the blast radius?
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This isn't financial advice, but if they dropped 40-50%, things like consumer staples would go up. In fact, they did this Friday, when everything else melted.

The best defensive stock for those situations is WMT, but you can think of other similar names as you reason through the why. That's where I'd go. There are many ETFs such as VDC (Vanguard Consumer Staples).

If you don't want to be so defensive, you could go VTV which is basically "large cap value stocks" so it still includes some Tech like Intel but it's way more diversified into other industries.

Gold is more inflation-related, so I wouldn't go there, at least not for the 40-50% draw down scenario you're describing.

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I think a tricky thing is names like WMT, COST, TJX already have high p/e ratios.

You could usually try utilities or energy but those are also high due to AI buildout & Iran.

I think gold could make a come back since it's beating down a bit this year. Treasuries or just a reasonable hedge with puts against your holdings may be the best bet.

Of course none of this is financial advice & is just open discussion looking for thoughts.

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Small cap value did well in the 2000 tech crash and SP600 (small cap) doesn’t have many direct datacenter or AI exposed names compared to large and mid cap indexes. But given the scale of capex across the US they aren’t immune from secondary effects.
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Probably an international fund like VEA that is much more diversified.
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I think there are no safe harbor investments at this time. Even gold is unpredictable.

Personally I went 80% world excl US and 20% equal weight S&P500 to hedge against what I think is an AI bubble. But if the market decides to adjust Nvidia's valuation 20% downward next week, I expect there to be ripple effects throughout the economy.

(Like the .com bubble, I think the tech is genuinely transformative and here to stay, but the valuations are just ridiculous.)

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I think you're missing the feature of equal-weight index that your parent comment is attracted to—which is a sense that the market generally is out of balance toward AI investment at the moment and that there's a correction coming, which the equal-weight index will have less exposure to.

Your concerns sound valid provided things continue on as they have (I'm not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice) but the commenters above you are specifically worried that it's not going to do that. In which case, the disadvantages you point out of the equal-weight index will be handily outweighed. If an AI bubble popping causes the market-weighted funds to suffer, it doesn't matter that we've avoided trading fees along the way.

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Selling winners and buying losers sounds an awful lot like "buy low, sell high".
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Company performance doesnt follow a uniform distribution where each company is as likely to overperform as any other. Selling companies that are run well because their stock went up is a great way to miss out on a lot of money.
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If you're reliably beating the market over a long time horizon by picking specific stocks, you're a billionaire, or soon to be.
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This is a non sequitur. We are talking about the standard weight s&p 500 vs an equal weight s&p500
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Picking an equal weight fund is closer to picking specific stocks than investing in the S&P500 imo
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