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they often argue that allowing something in one state, even limited to that state, impacts commerce in other states. I think they would use a similar argument here.
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Yes, AI regulation is squarely in the wheelhouse of the Commerce Clause.
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I don't think we've found any topic or situation that doesn't fall under the Commerce Clause.
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If there is such a topic or situation, we can always fall back to the "national security" rationale. That covers everything else the federal government wants to impose on states.
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