If you have reasonable amounts of RAM to cache the most likely experts, that's not true at all. Qwen 27B is marginally faster on a nearly empty context, then falls behind as context length increases due to the different attention mechanisms. Prefill for Qwen is much faster, but you're still comparing vastly different model sizes and capabilities. DeepSeek Flash is the best deal overall.
> completely fit in a high-end consumer or mid-end pro GPU
Or you could fit the dense portion of a much more capable model and still take advantage of that hardware.
Is that how MoEs work? I though that an important constraint for MoEs is that experts need to be uniformly used to make sure they can be used effectively. If there is a 'common subset' that, if anything, sounds like a symptom of undertraining (i.e. the same trick will not work as well for Deepseek V4.1).
Also, even if your MoE hitrate is 90%, you still spend half your time waiting for the SSD, giving similar total speed to a 27B model!
Finally, it looks like Deepseek V4 is pretty much only runnable with antirez's ds4, and SSD streaming only works with Metal; but I would like to try what you say with llama.cpp which uses mmap to also potentially do SSD streaming. (I can maybe try the large Qwen3.5 MoEs?)
> as context length increases
What kind of context length do you consider reasonable, though? From what I know, all models (even frontier ones) start degrading once you pass a few hundred thousand tokens. So realistically, limiting context size might even improve quality, especially if you use token-efficient harnesses.
> Or you could fit the dense portion of a much more capable model and still take advantage of that hardware.
Your point about consumer hardware was that it would be "borderline unusable" when running Qwen 3.6 27B. However, you need much less hardware to run a 27B than DSv4 Flash. In addition, you can do the same 'trick' with low-end GPUs and small MoEs: my desktop with 32 GB DDR4-3200 and an RTX 2070 8GB can run the ~30B class MoEs at 20-30 tokens per second and similar speeds to my laptop.