I'm not convinced of that.
I watched a video of an architect using AI to create architectural drawings. It became very clear to me that he has a lot of skills and terminology that helped him produce something very specific, in a few minutes. I've been working on some home improvement stuff including a studio/shed and I've struggled to produce even something simple (currently trying to get a conversation packet on the roof trusses to take the the permit department to get started). Even with my high school architecture class.
After watching that I wonder how much of what I'm doing with AI that looks easy is because I hae a deep technical knowledge, plus 3 years of heavy work with AI.
But that's not what this specific article is describing. The world this article is describing is one where you describe the business requirements, and you don't think about how it's implemented. You don't write the code, you don't review the code, you don't test the code. You give the AI business requirements and you give it access to sources of context (slack, meeting notes, etc). Every place where the human would act as a gate reduces throughput, so it should be eliminated through building harnesses and providing context.
What they're doing here is the equivalent of taking a factory where you have 2 process engineers and 100 operators, and replacing all the operators with robots. They want to automate the whole process of making the software and just leave the part that figures out how to make the automation work effectively.
In this world, the average software company doesn't need people who know how to write good software, because writing, reviewing, maintaining, and testing the software will be entirely automated. There will be a small number of people at companies like OpenAI that need to know how to write good software in order to supervise training the models, and there will be a small number of people at the software companies who have expertise in setting up the automation.
That right there is what I'm talking about: that architect would write the requirements for a building way different than I would.
Just because I'm not typing "strcat(); strcpy(); sprintf()" doesn't mean I'm not thinking about problems. I'm still doing critical thinking all over my stack, and I don't see that going away. I'm just doing different thinking.
There are people who think, and AI just isn't going to change that. There are people who don't think, and they've existed long before AI. Back in the 90s when I worked at the phone company, man, I worked with some people who didn't do a lick of work (along with some really sharp people).
Software engineers have always adapted to new technologies. New languages, frameworks, native apps, browser apps etc. So far this doesn't seem to be close to completely removing us from the loop.
If you are smart, educated, and can adapt, you'll figure it out. The economy has to find some stable equilibrium and it's not a zero sum game. Everyone in the economy getting a paycheck is also a consumer. With no consumers there is no business. The companies who are using AI and become more productive can do more things that before were not profitable but now are. Some of the people who are getting laid off are going to start new businesses and hire people. These things always cycle, and they basically have to.
I don't have a crystal ball though.
Artists and writers are unionized, why they have a more powerful collective voice.
Second, there are enough peole for which their jobs are very well paid and too cozy to dare to rock the boat.
The economy and job market isn't so hot either at the moment for people to quickly be able to jump ship.
Can you even be sure that you find a tech company that isn't jumping head first onto the AI hype train? Even politicians can't have enough of AI in their mouth.
artists overvalue their own outputs