'Barring the invasion of Taiwan' might actually be quite a lot to bar in mid 2026.

My hot take is that it's now or never for Xi, and from the specific things he is reported to have said to the US president at their last meeting lead me to think that he at least knows this is his big chance; whether or not it is taken is the part of the forecast that is opaque to me.

Unluckily for you, they started back in 2014, and had a huge incentive to speed up in 2019 when Trump started restricting exports.