If Windows would stay the same (and not grow) it would be much faster on newer CPUs...
I'm not saying your entire point is invalid, just that half of it is not correct, and so things might turn out worse than expected.
Every business needs an accountant and a lawyer on hand. In the past, hiring one software engineer to build custom software for your small or midsized business was not worth it. What can one software engineer build? Maybe an MVP in a year? No chance it was worth it for the vast majority of businesses. Outside of corporations or tech companies, employing a software dev was simply not a thing.
Nowadays, your kindergarten might employ a full time or part time software engineer to build custom software. One dev can build a lot more a lot faster.
That said, I think the average or below average dev won’t earn $200k/year anymore. However, the top devs will earn more than ever. If AI increases an average dev’s productivity by 10x, then it will increase a top tier dev’s by 100x.
SWEs are more leveraged than ever and we've seen comp drastically rise for top performers
No they won’t. Productivity does not determine the wage rate.
1. They can build and sell their own products or services. We are already seeing 1-2 person software companies earning real money. Top devs don’t have to stay in corporate if they think they can generate more revenue on their own.
2. When companies get rid of their B devs without losing productivity, they can pay their A devs more.
I’m in the #2 camp right now. My team shrank by 50% through attrition in the last year. We didn’t hire anyone new when someone left. My pay has increased.
I’m a CEO and I don’t see this at all. There will be more consolidation for whom the economics are viable to pay good wage rates. The rest? Nah.
The crap ones will be out of a job. The best ones will fight fiercely amongst each other to keep their jobs and existing wage rates. Let alone increase.
We already have CEOs is vendors trying to scare people away from vibe coding their contract away, while I diligently vibe code their contract away.
Not much new here as my entire career has been coding away 3rd party contracts, and it’s now easier than ever.
I threatened to leave to start my own company unless they gave me enough money to make me not want to do it. They did.
Regardless, I didn't say "many". I said top tier. How you define that is up to you.
There is already ample evidence for top dev talent earning way more than before whether it's through corporate or starting their own company.
Junior wages won’t change, and may even get lower.
But, at least at present, the top devs are earning more than ever as their skills are much more leveraged.
I don’t see that changing anytime soon.
most top swe comp comes from equity in the company, which benefits from productivity
not only that but the leveraged nature of swe means top performers are in perpetual shortage and low performers contribute negative productivity
anecdotally weve seen comp rise as the best candidates have multiple competing offers as well as the freedom to start their own business
Top devs make more than before
The AI companies will skim all the extra profits.
...or if there's an increase of demand for software, but mostly of the kind that can be completely automated by AI, no need for developers.