> So maybe it is, indeed, time to panic a bit?

Anyone relying on a steady paycheck from an employer should panic a bit all the time, because nothing can save them from bad management. The reference to Jevons Paradox doesn't say anything about individual managers responding correctly. If 30% of managers screw up, that's a lot of collateral damage.

Now to respond to your actual point, I don't think software developers should panic. Even if pure software engineering gets hit hard, I'm having trouble imagining a scenario where years of software development skills plus knowledge in a specific domain isn't a good thing for current software developers. This is unlike what happened with international trade, where you had 60-year old textile workers losing their jobs, no alternative jobs, and no policy being offered to compensate them for the effects of trade.

Yes, it's the "market" argument that I find compelling. That is, not jevons within firms, but rather across them.

Is it true that the evidence in tech so far is not encouraging? I was pretty worried about the job market a year or so ago, but it seems pretty good for experienced people at the moment, no? (I do have big concerns about the entry level pipeline though!)