The Paris Agreement deals with total emissions. Unlike previous climate treaties, it doesn't specify a baseline year. If you use 2005, as the US was supposed to use, the 2030 target is ~3.5 billion tonnes. 2024 emissions were ~4.9 billion tonnes. If you use a 1990 baseline, as in earlier treaties, the US target becomes ~2.9 billion tonnes.
replyUS population has been basically stable (+10% over the past 10 years), so per capita (in terms of the paris agreement timeframe) is a reasonable proxy.
replyYes, but it was most recently at the same level between 1939 and 1940, according to that graph.
replyAnd total US GHG emissions are currently at about the same level as they were in 1988.
US consumers and businesses buy almost all their stuff from China. China's massive footprint of Coal should be added to US emissions.
replyGood point. But one factor is China is also greatly reducing their emissions. For instance, their pollution levels have plummeted after enacting strict controls:
replyhttps://epic.uchicago.edu/insights/china-has-quickly-and-sha...
Still, that is a good point, a lot of the emissions from manufacturing have been shifted to other countries.
>China is also greatly reducing their emissions
replyAre they? because looking at these charts[0], although fossil fuel use as a percent of total energy may be going down, the absolute values for coal, gas and oil only go up year over year.
[0]https://ourworldindata.org/profile/energy/china#what-sources...
Aye, but that data is up to 2024, here's an update: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-ha...
reply"flat or falling" let's be honest. The amount of "fall" in that graph is basically in the noise. It's been flat.
replyIt's still a big change from the previous status quo. I've been checking on absolute emissions on various industrial countries for a while now and this is the first time I've seen them actually flat (and not decreasing as a fraction but increasing in absolute terms)
reply> US consumers and businesses buy almost all their stuff from China
replyThis is not really the case, China is the US' #3 trading partner, and trade-corrected GHGs are also down (see the graph further down the page), actually by an slightly better percentage off-peak.
China’s massive coal footprint is shrinking due to successful, intentional effort under the most recent five year plan, and coal’s presence in China’s power mix will likely continue to shrink, while China ramps up exports of clean energy technology to the rest of the world.
replyIn absolute terms, china's coal footprint is increasing, and will continue to increase in the short term, as of early 2026, they were still opening new coal plants.
replyTheir coal capacity is increasing, but the utilization is continually falling.
replyChina is a semi-planned economy. The coal plants are more a form of insurance than a practical and economical source of power.
replyThe trend has China installing as much solar capacity as the rest of the world combined every single year within a reasonably small margin.
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