You are unlikely to see a vehicle with sodium batteries until after that happens, and it needs to be significantly less than LFPs as you Na batteries have more weight per Wh. I believe they also have a shorter lifespan (but not NMC short). Edit correction, looks like CATL is promising 15000 cycles, which is much longer than LFPs which usually come in at 7000 to 10000.
It seems far more likely to me that if the Na prices tank, you'll probably first see them deployed as grid and home battery solutions.
CATL already put sodium ion in cheap cars. And there are other benefits to this type of battery like a wider range of operating temperatures that cover essentially all of the extreme temperatures you'd find in the arctic and the hottest deserts.
I would not be surprised to find some of these batteries in big semis a few years down the line when the cost benefits make the space/weight sacrifices worth the trade off.
But you are right that domestic and grid storage are also going to be huge use cases.
Because they lose neither capacity nor charging speed at low temperatures, like the lithium-ion batteries, they expect that in the future sodium-batteries will be the best choice in the countries with cold climates.
EESMs are primarily manufactured by European OEMs (ZF, MAHLE, Schaffler, AEM) and their Indian JV partners (Sona Comstar, Sterling, and the India branches of the OEMs listed). Both have been blocked via export controls from accessing battery tech from China over the past few years, and a major reason for the push for EESMs was for an ex-China supply chain, especially after China began export controlling rare earths to the EU [6].
Additonally, Chinese and American EVs tend to use PMSMs unlike European and now Indian EVs. Also, the EU is cracking down on automotive exports (cars and OEMs) from non-FTA states as part of the EU Industrial Accelerator Act (which btw has made China go ballistic [2][3][4][5]).
On the other hand, they will most likely use Japanese or Korean solid-state batteries as Idemetsu Kosan is in the process of mass producing them [0][1] as is LG [7], and both Japan+SK are FTA partners with the EU.
[0] - https://www.chiyodacorp.com/en/projects/solidelectrolytefaci...
[1] - https://battery-tech.net/battery-markets-news/idemitsu-kosan...
[2] - https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202605/1361926.shtml
[3] - https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202605/1362200.shtml
[4] - https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202605/1362161.shtml
[5] - https://www.ft.com/content/5903318c-319b-426e-b05d-062f7620f...
[6] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/eu-lawmakers-rebuke-chin...
[7] - https://blog.lgchem.com/en/2026/03/25_solid_state_battery/