> The only change I have noticed in software since LLMs have hit the mass market is degradation of software quality, not increase in feature releases.

Not fully true. AI is now often used to fix a lot of bugs in old and badly maintained software.

The quality of big and popular software probably decreased a bit, but the quality of niche products probably improved.

> It's pretty clear by now that coding productivity increases by 10-15% with AI.

Completely offtopic for this thread but I can't be the only one that would find this hilarious if it wasn't being said in earnest in every thread.

The only thing that is clear is that measuring programming is just as impossible as it has always been. In all my years of projects they've either been resounding successes or gone down in flames. The difference between good and bad is a difference in kind. Most of the bad ones didn't even know what the hell they were building and built the wrong thing.

Like, the entire idea that some omniscient manager is looking at a thousand timelines and pondering over whether to pick the $11.5M successful one or the $9.5M successful one is literally laughable. Half of them are going to make the Hindenburg look like a bit of a whoopsie and the other half you would lock in sight unseen without a second thought.