Two years later, and I'm running Qwen3.6 35b agentically to develop the start of a repository and automatically run tests to then improve on itself. I never thought we'd get here so quickly with LLMs back then.
I'm pretty sure in two years we'll have current Opus-like quality in the 30-100b parameter model range. But at that point, Opus 6.3 will reason along for us so much better still, that we'll still look at those models in awe. It's great to look ahead, but let's not forget to appreciate how effective the current local models already are :)
It's personal, but I prefer CapEx over OpEx for this. If you can purchase a device upfront that runs a decent local LLM, you get the peace of mind that your setup won't suddenly change over time and can only get better.
Now, there's a bit of a degree to which some of the open source models do some benchmaxxing, and bigger models with more params may always feel like they have more depth. But anyhow, right now you have something that is arguably comparable to Claude 4 Opus on your laptop. I can't really compare myself because I never used it. It looks like Claude 4 Opus is still available on OpenRouter, so you could try it out and compare yourself if you're interested.
It will likely always be the case that there are proprietary cloud models that are more powerful than what you can run on a laptop. You can just do a whole lot more with terabytes of VRAM on multi-GPU clusters than you can do on a laptop. So for folks who must have the most capable, you're probably not going to want to leave Anthropic.
But right now, the models you can run on your laptop are comparable to the cloud models that were popular when vibecoding and Claude Code first took off.
Anyhow, feel free to try them out head to head on OpenRouter. I'd love to see someone write up their results, of a modern local sized open source model vs. frontier models from ~a year ago, on something other than the standard benchmarks.
I'm not affiliated, I just like his style and have found it handy. I know it's not very rigorous, but it's good enough for me and I've found his examples to pretty closely match the results I see in real life.
OpenAI was offering 2x usage at one point and I still used opus just because it's so much more effective.
More and more specialized and ultra-performant chips are going to flood the consumer market. Especially once new hardware foundries will start producing (well if we don't die from WW3 in the interval).
In 10 years from now, when even basic computers will have 128 GB of memory, and phones will have super optimized tuned models, then what will be the point of Anthropic ?
Just use Gemma/Gemini/Siri or whatever.
Pornography and uncensored models is also pushing toward local models.
It's not like needs of people grows exponentially, the needs follow an asymptote instead (they are capped).
The real revolution is offline robots and self-driving cars, but LLMs are already quite maxed.
For programmers, now, what Anthropic offers is like 3% improvement on a known test (like this pelican riding a bicycle), or on questions leaked from benchmark insiders.
It's ok but not like revolutionary (Fable was better but it was unusable, easy 20 minutes per one prompt due to overthinking).