I don't see how you can back that up with actual data.

- SCOTUS would be radically different in composition without a GOP President being elected in 2016. That would have preserved post-Watergate reforms that prevented broad, sweeping executive actions that go against Congress's wishes. So at best Trump II could only look like a Trump I

- We wouldn't have attacked Iran. Continued closing of Hormuz has pretty far-reaching consequences

- EU might not be trying as hard to be as independent on defense matters, and the US would be active in Ukraine

- US would not be as ambivalent about Taiwan under a non-Trump administration

There are many places where things wouldn't have changed much. But electing Trump has had far reaching consequences to the constitutional system.