LLM companies are valued as if they're going to have some enduring monopoly that they can extract money from... GLM-5.2 and similar models make that valuation very very questionable.
No disagreement there, but it could easily last another 3 to 5 years which is a long time in tech terms.
Don't underestimate the markets ability to remain irrational
If making RAM and SSDs is now cause for a 10 figure valuation, after enough time somebody will dive in.
Also irrational parts of this market (would love to hear your thoughts):
- the purchase of hardware that isn't power efficient or gives an ROI for ML/AI use cases by companies buying it, who would be priced out of using that hardware over time
- many people and companies are buying the hardware due to hype and scarcity/FOMO reasons over rational reasons
Alibaba released Qwen 3.6 "tiny" models not that long ago, they punch way above their weight(s)
True, Qwen3.6-27B is amazing for it's size. However, it seems likely that we're not going to see anymore of these smaller models from Alibaba/Qwen since several key players exited that organization a few months back.