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by steveBK1233 hours ago |
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upvoteby sdesol3 hours ago|
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> Microsoft adding Deepseek support

I believe this hasn't been confirmed yet but I think it speaks to a bigger problem for the AI companies which is, if you give capable developers a good reasoning LLM, they can make it work like it was a really expensive model.

I believe we are 100% at the stage of good enough for the vast majority of tech companines. Fable and others will be more valuable for non-traditional tech companies.

I read somewhere that the chinese AI companies are sharing knowledge and it would not surprise me if the government is applying pressure by saying work together or else. If they work together, they can truly commoditize LLMs and with China ramping up hardware support for AI, I see the future being inference speed and hardware being the moat.

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upvoteby thewebguyd3 hours ago|
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If hardware becomes the moat, the US frontier labs are screwed. We have AWS, Azure, GCP. All three have or are making inference silicon. LLMs become just another service in the public cloud's large service catalog, and open weight wins.

Which makes sense to me. Selling a chatbot interface/model access to the general public was never going to be a viable long term play. You still need developers to wrap the models into specialized tools. Queue the Jobs quote "It's a feature, not a product."

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upvoteby KolibriFly37 minutes ago|
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The funniest thing would be if in a couple years LLMs just end up being another checkbox next to PostgreSQL and Kubernetes
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upvoteby sdesol2 hours ago|
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The big thing is, the western world has moved so much of the manufacturing to China and think a lot of people will not forgive Samsung and others, so I can see China owning a good portion of the supply chain.
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upvoteby johnvanommen2 hours ago|
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> The big thing is, the western world has moved so much of the manufacturing to China

I built my career on Solaris and it got rugpulled by Linux.

That wasn’t because of software, it was because of hardware. Linux’s cost advantage existed because Sun hardware had huge margins, because their software was basically free.

AI will probably be a repeat of this. Whoever can come up with the hardware solution that minimizes the cost per token will win.

I believe the 5090 still holds this crown, but someone certainly knows better than I do.

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upvoteby rescbr1 hours ago|
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While people fly to the US to buy Macs at a lower price and bring them back in their backpacks, I guess I'll be flying to HK to buy a Chinese GPU rather sooner than later...
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upvoteby trollbridge1 hours ago|
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Fortunately, Solaris skills map to Linux pretty cleanly.
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upvoteby fragmede1 hours ago|
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but not all tokens are equal and vertical integration is the name of the game. Solaris did not lose to Linux, it lost to the LAMP stack on commodity x86 hardware. without the "AMP" part, Linux would've been dead in the water.
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upvoteby CuriouslyC3 hours ago|
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100%. There will be strict quotas on the expensive models and day to day work will be done on the cheap models that are "good enough" with escalation to the metered models when the cheaper options are spinning their wheels. Eventually the US frontier lab APIs will only get the most heavily triaged work that multiple tiers of cheaper Chinese open weight models have failed on.

And of course the C-suite will have unlimited access to Mythos tier models, which they'll use to summarize reports, while passing down mandates to rank and file to increase usage of less expensive models.

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upvoteby verdverm2 hours ago|
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Yup, we are in the process of getting access to US hosted Chinese models. I've been petitioning Google and our rep, we will see but I suspect they will cave eventually. Gemini sucks and if they don't sell what their customers want, we go shopping around.
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