> Line must go up! This is how they'll do it for a few more quarters. This is why the messaging is so unified across the industry, across every C-suite out there. They all need to believe.
replyThe real danger for the economy is when the runway finally runs out. And I believe we are at a perfect-storm scenario... AI is obviously a giant wash-trading bubble that alone would be sufficient to trigger a repeat of the 2007ff crisis. But on top of that, we got the issue you mentioned, i.e. everyone running out of kool-aid and noticing it too late, with no easy way of turning around, and we got the war risk and supply chain shocks thanks to Iran and Russia, and and and.
And that's how you get a new war. Line must go up isn't only for the corps, its for US GOV debt too. Interest payments are already close to $1 trillion. As soon as GDP growth doesn't stay ahead of the compounding interest, the music stops. The line must go up or you get a sovereign deb crisis. When all other avenues are expended, the gov must force the economy to expand by any means necessary. Historically, that meant war.
replyGovernment debt can go down too. Democrat governments have been historically pretty good at balancing the budgets - only for their Republican successors to waste all of the effort on tax cuts for the rich and, yes, yet another dipshit war.
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