Lots of people were in that space trying to guess what was going to be the way to go, he did, that can of course be that he guessed with luck. But if someone guesses big with luck maybe it is just as reasonable to say that they had at least some clever insights.

He has multiple times bought his way out of the things that would threaten him. That is of course the game, it doesn't make him brilliant but it does make him reasonably competent at that part of his business.

There are lots of people that are described as neurodivergent who do not understand social interaction, or are very bad at it, let us, for the sake of argument, say that Zuckerberg is one of these (it is possible that my face looks like I am sucking on a lemon as I type this), but most of these people do not bother to try to model various ways that the people do socially interact do it, and build successful businesses on top of a model that may perhaps be flawed but does have some predictive/manipulative power.