I don't think that people relying on the tools too much is the first sign I would identify to mean the bubble is popping
replyThe market is priced at expecting AGI levels of breakthroughs. Just a very useful tool for programming is definitely not enough to keep the music playing.
replyWhat does "AGI" mean to you such that we have not had it for years already? Whenever I see people mention AGI it's in the future tense, as if we don't have artificial machines that can apply intelligence to general domains.
replyIf the market thought AGI was imminent the labs would be worth hundreds of trillions of dollars. AGI is one step away from fully automated economy.
replythe thing went from the transformer paper in 2017 to basically doing your job for you in 2026
replyThe problem is that it's too expensive. It can technically do parts of my job for me, but at a variable cost that's higher than mine right now.
replyEfficiency is an angle of research that's quite active, see quantization, MoE, speculative decoding, QKV cache optimizations, sparse attention, etc
replyNo, the clue is people realizing that relying on the tools costs too damn much. The tools may be fine-ish for what they do, but there might be a bubble built on unrealistically high expectations of revenues.
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