This is what the parent said. AGI won't rise out of AlphaZero and AlphaFold in the same way AGI won't rise out of Houdini chess engine. This is the industry consensus.
That's a straw man. Nobody thinks AGI will rise out of domain-specific systems. The question is whether domain-specific systems are necessary for AGI.
Of course, the problem is that AGI isn't a well-defined concept. But if we define it as achieving superhuman performance across several hundred domains where there are objective measures of success, it doesn't seem far-fetched to predict that it will involve some general reasoning system paired with a bunch of specialized modules.
> I don't foresee AGI arising out training bigger LLMs
I agree that AGI will involve tool usage but not only involving domain specific AI models.
But lets try to find the discriminating point in the discussion - do you believe AGI will necessarily involve training bigger LLM's or not?
I believe they are necessary. WBU?
No, I don't think LLMs are necessary for AGI at all. I think there are multiple paths to AGI, some of which involve LLMs and some which don't.