upvote

points

by jorts4 hours ago |
comments
upvoteby dhx3 hours ago|
[-]
If demographics are a problem for chipmaking in China, then it's good to compare against key chipmaking countries.

To compare, 2024 (UN) fertility rates (highest-lowest):[1]

  US:     1.62
  Japan:  1.23
  China:  1.02
  ROC:    0.86
  ROK:    0.75 (where an increase to 0.8 in 2025 was cause for celebration, as is a predicted increase to 0.85 by mid 2026)[2]
Alternatively (and perhaps accounting for migration etc), UN 2024 forecasts population differences in these countries between 2024-2050 as:[3]

  US:    +10%
  Japan: -16%
  China:  -8%
  ROC:    -6%
  ROK:   -12%
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_fer...

[2] https://www.chosun.com/english/national-en/2026/01/24/IVHGRT...

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_...

reply
upvoteby FuriouslyAdrift2 hours ago|
parent|
next
[-]
Chipmaking is not a high labor industry (other than during the building of plants).

China's one big advantage over other work forces is massive amounts of labor that can be directed by central planning. As their labor costs have gone up, labor intensive manufacturing has already started shifting away. When population declines cause labor costs to go even higher, they lose their advantage.

reply
upvoteby Forgeties7939 minutes ago|
parent|
[-]
It is impossible to overstate how disastrous the 1CP was and continues to be for China. They will likely never recover from it.
reply
upvoteby cyberax2 hours ago|
parent|
prev|
[-]
One thing missing is that the population growth in the US is mostly reliant on immigration (https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2023/demo/popproj/2023-su...). And our most favoritest political party is working on stopping it.
reply