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> Coca-Cola doesn't "quietly water down" its product to save a few bucks. They know people will take a sip, say "oh that's not what i wanted", and go buy a Pepsi.

Coca-Cola is also mostly measurable and reverse-engineerable.

The Claude models are black boxes, and actively curtail distilling efforts.

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How are you going to confidently tell the difference between it being slightly dumber, vs just having bad luck with your recent attempts?
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Pepsi may not water down its product, but your local diner may well decide to put a little less ice-cream in its milkshakes if it thinks it can get away with it and most people won't be able to tell.
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