Pretty accurately what? So now OpenBrain has an Agent-1 that makes their algorithmic progress 50% faster than other companies? If it was 50% more CVEs, that would be something, but I doubt any meaningful self improvement is achieved which the competitors are slower due that, which is the core of the prediction for 2026.
replyI wonder. There has been some headway in getting decentralized training runs to work.
replyYeah, Cognition's work is interesting in that regard, but it still doesn't obviate the need for the chips--it just enables training on them when they're spread across multiple data centers.
replyThe Plan A proposal estimates that the ownership of ~96% of AI relevant compute hardware can have its ownership traced, since the companies selling are very few.
I doubt we can even track all of the chip production capacity.
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