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I'm eagerly awaiting "AI 2100" from the same people.
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"All these GPUs are yours, except Europa. Attempt no landing there".
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please bro just one more decade bro i promise AGI is right around the corner no the hockeystick graph isn't made up bullshit we just need to wait a few more years bro please please bro
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big number goes up and becomes larger number, chart goes up and to the right, this must be a solid measure of progress in society.
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A hockey stick graph on a log scale is a bit much.
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I suspect "AI 1844" would be more apt for this group.
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This seems way more accurate. Up until early 2026.

Though it has bizzare fixation on geopolitics and China which it severely understimated. It's pretty obvious that China is going to outinnovate and outcompute US companies quite soon. Even if just because they care about higher education, providing enough electricity and letting smart people do smart things instead of randomly muzzling them with bans and export controls and coddling them with financial protectionism.

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Hm, China is also beginning to invoke export controls to restrict homegrown models: https://www.reuters.com/world/beijing-is-looking-curbing-ove...
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I wonder how much of what China is currently able to do it because USA is such a mess.

The whole article is kind of ridiculous of course, and is also heavily fixated on OpenBrain, whatever that is.

I also wonder about the economics of running an AI lab attached to an existing large tech company (such as Meta or Tencent) instead of a dedicated company like OpenAI. It's starting to seem like it's not possible to charge enough for current-gen AI usage, with current-gen inference technology, in order to turn a profit, i.e. nobody is able or willing to pay at least marginal cost for tokens.

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Hm, Anthropic reported it was close to operating profit last quarter: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/mind-blowing-growth-is-about-to-...

And a third party estimates it will exceed $1B profit in Q3: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/anthropic-3q26-profit-...

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> This seems way more accurate. Up until early 2026.

Which is funny, because they launched the AI 2027 site in 2025 and it caused a lot of people to believe the end was near.

They claimed to have built a complicated model, but several people showed that it didn't matter how much you changed the inputs, it was designed to converge on the answer they wanted.

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