Don’t you think the speed at which obsolescence occurs matters? There’s a bit of survivorship bias here, in the sense of

“I’ve been pulling my sled across this lake for 50 winters even when the temperature went above freezing. Never fell through!”

It has. For example mechanization of argiculture in places where it didnt coincide with a manufacturing boom (latin america, india, africa) resulted in shantytowns and long term unemployment.